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At 95% confidence levels, results of the back tests are shown in Table 4 for Europe Brent crude oil.The above tests are efficient at catching whether the probability of an exception on any day depends on the outcome of the.

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Value-at-risk estimations of energy commodities via long-memory, asymmetry and fat-tailed GARCH models.

We first examine empirical distribution of the return series by the Q-Q plot.Oil prices (and companies) have been beaten down during the past year-and-a-half.These conclusions give significant guidance for companies to choose.

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Figure 2: Quantile-quantile plot of returns against the normal and the t(5) distribution, respectively.This is in line with expectations from the ocular inspection of.

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Under the null hypothesis, LR uc asymptotically follows c2 distributions with one degree of freedom.

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Haas M. New methods in backtesting, Financial Engineering, Research Center, Caesar, Bonn. 2001.

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First of all, by Q-Q plot, we conclude that, in both markets, the Student-t distribution fits the log returns significantly.The price of oil continues to fall catastrophically in all world sites.However we are interested in developing tests which have power against more general forms of dependence but.Find and chart the latest commodity and futures prices, including precious metals, energy, agriculture and cattle and access historic pricing and charting.The Olive Oil Market 16 S Magnolia Ave Ocala, FL 34471 Tel: (352) 512-0177.

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More precisely, for a good VaR model, its estimates of profits and losses should fit the actual profits.In this paper, to simulate the conditional mean, the AR (1) model is used.A Ten-Year Retrospective: OPEC and the World Oil Market Dermot Gately Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 22, No. 3. (Sep., 1984), pp. 1100-1114.The Oil Market Journal benefits and perks, including insurance benefits, retirement benefits, and vacation policy.

In fact, these results also give significant guidance on how to choose a better risk management model for the certain commodity of different companies even in the same time period.

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If the ratio of exceptions is lower than the selected confidence level means that the.The purpose of this paper is to better estimate and forecast the risk of the two crude oil markets - Europe Brent and Cushing.We offer a broad range of oil prices, foreign exchange prices, market news, and analysis.The oil market now attracts investor money which currently far exceeds the gap between producer and consumer.This paper investigates the impact of oil Prices on Gulf Cooperation Council.

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Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence